World Bank is releasing a new report titled 'South Asia Region – Towards a Climate Change Strategy'. According this report there are several factors like, high population densities, a large concentration of poverty and the region’s climate variability have all combined to make South Asia highly sensitive to the consequences of climate change. This report forecasts that climate change has the potential to compound existing development problems and increase pressures on key resources needed to sustain future growth, urbanisation and industrialisation.
South Asia is the least integrated region in the world but would grow further if it were more integrated. Regional cooperation can be a powerful tool for increasing growth, reducing inequality, increasing energy trade and reducing vulnerabilities for the poor, suggests the report.
Climate change will reinforce the need for greater levels of economic integration. Likewise regional energy trade can contribute to the goal of low-carbon development. The challenge for South Asia is to maintain high growth rates while being climate resilient, environmentally sustainable and inclusive, it says.
Forecasts suggest higher but more variable and intense rainfall in South Asia, except in the relatively drier areas of Afghanistan, western India and Pakistan, which could see even less rainfall. IPCC projections indicate that the number of days for which extreme events last would increase in duration and severity. This effect will be especially pronounced in South Asia with its reliance on the monsoons – more so than in many other parts of the world.
Changes in precipitation and temperature are expected to interact in complex ways to change the balance between ‘green’ water and ‘blue’ water. ‘Green’ water is the water that is used or lost in catchments before it reaches the rivers, while ‘blue’ water is the runoff that reaches the rivers. The runoff is expected to change significantly in the subcontinent, with implications for agriculture. The Indus and Ganges/Brahmaputra basins are expected to experience increased runoff driven by precipitation changes and glacial melt.
South Asia is subject to a range of climate-related disasters, including tropical cyclones, sand storms, floods and droughts. Although it is difficult to predict the relationship between storms and climate change, it is expected, globally, that there will be more storms, at higher intensity.
Likewise, floods and droughts are also expected to increase given predictions of higher precipitation in fewer days. Over 50 per cent of South Asians – more than 750 million people – have been affected by a natural disaster in the last two decades. The human and economic toll has been high with almost 230,000 deaths and about $45 billion in damages, it says.
With rising temperatures the ice mass of the Himalayan-Hindukush is retreating more rapidly than the global average in some locations.The receding trends of glacier masses threaten water supplies, livelihoods and the economy of the region.
Agriculture and the region’s economic structure will need to undergo significant adjustment to cope with these changes.
The region faces daunting climate-related development challenges. The impacts of climate change in the form of higher temperatures, more variable precipitation and more extreme weather events are already felt in South Asia and it has been projected that these will intensify.
High population levels translate into increased resource demands on an already stressed natural resource base. By 2050, South Asias population is likely to exceed 2.2 billion from the current level of 1.5 billion. With an estimated 600 million South Asians subsisting on less than $1.25 a day, even small climate shocks can cause irreversible losses and tip a large number of people into destitution.
Sea level rise is a major source of concern not only for coastal urban areas but also for the fertile delta systems, which are threatened by both inundation and salinity intrusion. Salt water intrusion in low-lying agricultural plains and water resources could lead to localised food insecurity, spread of water-related diseases and the contamination of freshwater reserves.
South Asia is home to some of the fastest growing cities in the world. Projections indicate that in three decades about half the region’s population will dwell in the cities. By 2020, Mumbai will be the second largest city in the world, closely followed by Delhi, and Dhaka. With Karachi and Kolkata – five of the world’s 11 mega-cities will then be in South Asia.
There are particular challenges in making cities’ climate resilient. Building urban resilience requires improving infrastructure, governance and finance. Without a substantial investment in basic amenities and infrastructure in these large cities, climate change will exacerbate existing vulnerabilities.
South Asia is the least integrated region in the world but would grow further if it were more integrated. Regional cooperation can be a powerful tool for increasing growth, reducing inequality, increasing energy trade and reducing vulnerabilities for the poor, suggests the report.
Climate change will reinforce the need for greater levels of economic integration. Likewise regional energy trade can contribute to the goal of low-carbon development. The challenge for South Asia is to maintain high growth rates while being climate resilient, environmentally sustainable and inclusive, it says.
Forecasts suggest higher but more variable and intense rainfall in South Asia, except in the relatively drier areas of Afghanistan, western India and Pakistan, which could see even less rainfall. IPCC projections indicate that the number of days for which extreme events last would increase in duration and severity. This effect will be especially pronounced in South Asia with its reliance on the monsoons – more so than in many other parts of the world.
Changes in precipitation and temperature are expected to interact in complex ways to change the balance between ‘green’ water and ‘blue’ water. ‘Green’ water is the water that is used or lost in catchments before it reaches the rivers, while ‘blue’ water is the runoff that reaches the rivers. The runoff is expected to change significantly in the subcontinent, with implications for agriculture. The Indus and Ganges/Brahmaputra basins are expected to experience increased runoff driven by precipitation changes and glacial melt.
South Asia is subject to a range of climate-related disasters, including tropical cyclones, sand storms, floods and droughts. Although it is difficult to predict the relationship between storms and climate change, it is expected, globally, that there will be more storms, at higher intensity.
Likewise, floods and droughts are also expected to increase given predictions of higher precipitation in fewer days. Over 50 per cent of South Asians – more than 750 million people – have been affected by a natural disaster in the last two decades. The human and economic toll has been high with almost 230,000 deaths and about $45 billion in damages, it says.
With rising temperatures the ice mass of the Himalayan-Hindukush is retreating more rapidly than the global average in some locations.The receding trends of glacier masses threaten water supplies, livelihoods and the economy of the region.
Agriculture and the region’s economic structure will need to undergo significant adjustment to cope with these changes.
The region faces daunting climate-related development challenges. The impacts of climate change in the form of higher temperatures, more variable precipitation and more extreme weather events are already felt in South Asia and it has been projected that these will intensify.
High population levels translate into increased resource demands on an already stressed natural resource base. By 2050, South Asias population is likely to exceed 2.2 billion from the current level of 1.5 billion. With an estimated 600 million South Asians subsisting on less than $1.25 a day, even small climate shocks can cause irreversible losses and tip a large number of people into destitution.
Sea level rise is a major source of concern not only for coastal urban areas but also for the fertile delta systems, which are threatened by both inundation and salinity intrusion. Salt water intrusion in low-lying agricultural plains and water resources could lead to localised food insecurity, spread of water-related diseases and the contamination of freshwater reserves.
South Asia is home to some of the fastest growing cities in the world. Projections indicate that in three decades about half the region’s population will dwell in the cities. By 2020, Mumbai will be the second largest city in the world, closely followed by Delhi, and Dhaka. With Karachi and Kolkata – five of the world’s 11 mega-cities will then be in South Asia.
There are particular challenges in making cities’ climate resilient. Building urban resilience requires improving infrastructure, governance and finance. Without a substantial investment in basic amenities and infrastructure in these large cities, climate change will exacerbate existing vulnerabilities.
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