China will provide technical assistance to Pakistan for hydropower projects on the model of the Three Gorges Dam, which is one of the largest hydropower complexes in the world.While the installed hydropower capacity is of 6,493 MW, enormous potential exists to exploit this unlimited indigenous resource of energy. According to estimates, it is economically possible to generate some 34,000 MW additional hydropower, and 150 sites for projects of cumulative capacity of 20,000 MW have been identified. Pakistan has total installed power generation capacity of 20,456 MW. However, dependable or de-rated capacity is in the range of 14,000 to 16,000 MW during the year, due to a variety of factors, whereas demand for electricity is increasing at an average annual rate of over eight per cent. Thus , there is gross power shortage at national level, demand being projected to around 22,000 MW by the year 2010.
To meet surging demand, an additional 4,000 MW generating capacity, all based on gas and oil, will be created by December 2010, in private as well as in public sector, besides another 325 MW nuclear power plant to be commissioned by then. In contrast, only 516 MW hydropower is expected to add to the system.
In fact, the share of hydroelectric power generation in the overall energy mix is persistently decreasing--from 57 in the1980s to 42 in the1990s to current 32 per cent of the total installed capacity. The good news is that the government plans to increase it to the level of 20,000 MW by 2017. As a result of recent restructuring, the Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority (Wapda), re-named as Water Resources and Power Development Authority, is focusing on implementing multipurpose water projects, including medium and mega hydropower generation projects, either reservoir-based or run-of-the-river type.
In addition to expediting various on-going hydropower projects and rehabilitating/modernising the operational power stations, WAPDA has recently embarked upon a series of new hydropower projects. Hydropower projects of cumulative capacity of 419 MW are scheduled to go on stream during the period 2009-2010. These are Allai Khwar 121 MW, Khan Khwar 72 MW, Duber Khwar 130 MW, all located in Kohistan area, and Jinnah 96 MW to be located on Jinnah Barrage. In addition, NWFP has commissioned Malakand III hydropower project, of 81 MW capacity, which is expected to achieve commercial operation shortly.
There is a long list of the new projects being implemented or to be launched by WAPDA. The Chinese contractors have commenced construction of 47-km long network of tunnels for the 969-MW NeelumJhelum hydropower project, whereas tenders for various works of Diamer Basha Dam project, designed for an installed power generation capacity of 4,500 MW, have been invited. Also, Wapda has launched Golen Gol 106MW hydropower project to be constructed in Chitral. Construction of Kurram Tangi Dam project (hydropower generation of 83 MW) is planned to re-commence soon. Construction of the Akhori Dam project is on cards, having a power generation capacity of 600 MW. Likewise, design and engineering work on Keyal Khwar project of 122 MW capacity has been undertaken.
Feasibility studies related to another eight hydropower projects are in progress being conducted by the consultants appointed by Wapda. These projects, expected to complete by 2017, would have an installed capacity of about 12,000 MW and would require $16.7 billion to construct. It may take two years to finalise studies enabling Wapda to launch the projects Kohala hydropower project on the Jhelum River in the AJ&K will have a capacity of 1,100 MW, whereas Bunji hydropower project (Gilgit) will generate 5,400 MW on its completion. Dasu of 3,700 MW capacity is a run-ofthe-river scheme, 69-km downstream Diamer Basha Dam. Lower Palas Valley of 621 MW and Lower Spat Gah hydropower project of 610 MW are proposed to be located at Patan, Kohistan. The remaining projects are Phander (Gilgit) 80 MW, Basho (Skardu) 28 MW and Lawi (Chitral) 70 MW. In addition, pre-feasibility or initial studies are being conducted for Thakot hydropower of 2,800 MW and Patan of 2,800 MW, both proposed on Indus River, and Harpo of 33 MW near Skardu.